DAY 8
26% to $2,000
PORTFOLIO VALUE
$527.39
+$27.39 (+5.5%)
Available
$2.37
Exposure
$525.02
Positions
46
Starting Capital
$500.00
Research ACTIVE
Cycle 269
Trader ACTIVE
46 positions · $525.02 exposed
Portfolio Value
Open Positions (46)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
No · 70.9 shares
+$10.97
+20.8%
Entry: 0.75Now: 0.90Value: $63.82
-30%0%+40%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
No · 58.6 shares
+$46.40
+465.4%
Entry: 0.17Now: 0.96Value: $56.37
-30%0%+40%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
No · 31.7 shares
+$5.52
+23.1%
Entry: 0.76Now: 0.93Value: $29.46
-30%0%+40%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
No · 40.4 shares
+$7.22
+32.9%
Entry: 0.54Now: 0.72Value: $29.15
-30%0%+40%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
No · 64.1 shares
+$15.83
+122.1%
Entry: 0.20Now: 0.45Value: $28.79
-30%0%+40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
No · 36.5 shares
+$3.64
+16.6%
Entry: 0.60Now: 0.70Value: $25.58
-30%0%+40%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Yes · 44.0 shares
+$3.51
+23.5%
Entry: 0.34Now: 0.42Value: $18.45
-30%0%+40%
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
No · 16.3 shares
+$1.06
+7.1%
Entry: 0.92Now: 0.98Value: $16.02
-30%0%+40%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
No · 20.8 shares
-$0.20
-1.4%
Entry: 0.72Now: 0.71Value: $14.75
-30%0%+40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
No · 22.6 shares
+$2.17
+21.8%
Entry: 0.44Now: 0.54Value: $12.14
-30%0%+40%
Trump out as President before 2027?
No · 14.4 shares
+$0.02
+0.1%
Entry: 0.83Now: 0.83Value: $11.98
-30%0%+40%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
No · 13.8 shares
-$0.02
-0.2%
Entry: 0.87Now: 0.87Value: $11.95
-30%0%+40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
No · 12.9 shares
+$0.23
+2.1%
Entry: 0.85Now: 0.87Value: $11.19
-30%0%+40%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?
No · 13.8 shares
+$0.87
+8.7%
Entry: 0.72Now: 0.78Value: $10.84
-30%0%+40%
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
No · 12.6 shares
+$0.51
+5.1%
Entry: 0.79Now: 0.83Value: $10.47
-30%0%+40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No · 15.3 shares
+$0.33
+3.3%
Entry: 0.65Now: 0.67Value: $10.29
-30%0%+40%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No · 11.2 shares
+$0.05
+0.5%
Entry: 0.89Now: 0.89Value: $10.01
-30%0%+40%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Yes · 14.2 shares
+$1.21
+15.2%
Entry: 0.56Now: 0.65Value: $9.19
-30%0%+40%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
No · 10.1 shares
+$1.82
+26.1%
Entry: 0.69Now: 0.87Value: $8.80
-30%0%+40%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
No · 20.0 shares
-$1.42
-14.5%
Entry: 0.49Now: 0.42Value: $8.38
-30%0%+40%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
No · 9.5 shares
+$0.09
+1.2%
Entry: 0.84Now: 0.85Value: $8.07
-30%0%+40%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
No · 13.1 shares
+$0.01
+0.2%
Entry: 0.61Now: 0.61Value: $7.99
-30%0%+40%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
No · 9.0 shares
+$0.01
+0.2%
Entry: 0.89Now: 0.89Value: $7.99
-30%0%+40%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
No · 12.5 shares
+$0.01
+0.1%
Entry: 0.64Now: 0.64Value: $7.98
-30%0%+40%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
No · 9.4 shares
-$0.01
-0.2%
Entry: 0.85Now: 0.85Value: $7.96
-30%0%+40%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
No · 10.2 shares
-$0.10
-1.3%
Entry: 0.78Now: 0.77Value: $7.88
-30%0%+40%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
No · 12.1 shares
-$0.37
-4.7%
Entry: 0.66Now: 0.63Value: $7.61
-30%0%+40%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
No · 9.8 shares
+$0.17
+2.5%
Entry: 0.71Now: 0.73Value: $7.15
-30%0%+40%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
No · 8.2 shares
-$0.08
-1.1%
Entry: 0.85Now: 0.84Value: $6.90
-30%0%+40%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
No · 14.6 shares
+$1.29
+26.0%
Entry: 0.34Now: 0.43Value: $6.27
-30%0%+40%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
No · 7.3 shares
+$0.26
+4.4%
Entry: 0.82Now: 0.86Value: $6.24
-30%0%+40%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
No · 7.1 shares
+$0.40
+8.0%
Entry: 0.70Now: 0.76Value: $5.37
-30%0%+40%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
No · 5.7 shares
+$0.27
+5.5%
Entry: 0.87Now: 0.92Value: $5.25
-30%0%+40%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
No · 15.2 shares
+$1.19
+29.9%
Entry: 0.26Now: 0.34Value: $5.18
-30%0%+40%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
No · 16.6 shares
+$0.19
+3.9%
Entry: 0.30Now: 0.31Value: $5.17
-30%0%+40%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No · 6.1 shares
+$0.13
+2.6%
Entry: 0.81Now: 0.83Value: $5.10
-30%0%+40%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
No · 4.5 shares
+$0.14
+3.4%
Entry: 0.89Now: 0.92Value: $4.12
-30%0%+40%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
No · 4.2 shares
+$0.17
+5.6%
Entry: 0.72Now: 0.76Value: $3.16
-30%0%+40%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
No · 4.4 shares
-$0.10
-3.5%
Entry: 0.67Now: 0.65Value: $2.88
-30%0%+40%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
No · 2.3 shares
+$0.35
+17.6%
Entry: 0.85Now: 1.00Value: $2.34
-30%0%+40%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No · 3.9 shares
+$0.24
+11.8%
Entry: 0.51Now: 0.57Value: $2.22
-30%0%+40%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Yes · 19.9 shares
-$0.14
-6.9%
Entry: 0.10Now: 0.09Value: $1.85
-30%0%+40%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
Max Holloway · 2.3 shares
-$0.02
-1.4%
Entry: 0.65Now: 0.64Value: $1.47
-30%0%+40%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)
Yes · 3.1 shares
-$0.79
-39.8%
Entry: 0.63Now: 0.38Value: $1.19
-30%0%+40%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
Yes · 0.0 shares
+$0.01
+90.8%
Entry: 0.55Now: 0.79Value: $0.01
-30%0%+40%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Yes · 0.0 shares
+$0.00
+95.0%
Entry: 0.16Now: 0.23Value: $0.00
-30%0%+40%
Recent Trades
Mar 7 04:37REJECTEDBTC dip $65k in March? NO
Mar 6 16:48BUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?NO$9.80MEDIUM
Mar 6 16:19BUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?NO$4MEDIUM
Mar 6 15:14REJECTEDEQ1x6.5Mar8 NO re-entry
Mar 6 05:37BUYUFC 326 Holloway wins (Oliveira NO)?$1.50
Holloway defending champion in rematch. SM WR=4.3% ALL-TIME EXTREME LOTTERY on Oliveira YES (189 wallets). 91.5% of SM buying Oliveira at avg 0.342 = extreme lottery buyers. True P(Holloway wins) ~68-72%. Fills final non-geo debt. Min size. Mar 7-8 resolution.
Mar 6 05:36BUYIranian regime fall before 2027? NO$2.00
IRGC intact. No ground invasion planned. Iraq survived far heavier bombing for years before falling. Iran pursuing "endurance and deterrence" (BBC). SM WR=12.9% extreme lottery (561 wallets). True P(NO) 70-75% vs market 50%. Edge ~20-25%. PLACEHOLDER — will add $30-40 post-oracle. Dec 31 2026 resolution.
Mar 6 05:22BUYFinland win Eurovision 2026? NO$3.00
26-country field. Finland at 32.7% YES is overpriced — even strong Eurovision favorites lose ~65-70% of the time. SM WR=12.5% extreme lottery (80 wallets, 78.75% net buyers). Edge ~3-5%. Fills 1 non-geo debt. May 16 resolution.
Mar 6 04:59CLOSEPelicans vs Kings (Pelicans win)?+$0.93
Mar 6 04:46BUYIsrael ground offensive Lebanon by Mar 31? NO$5.00
"Major ground offensive" = 1,000+ IDF troops on ground. BBC 04:08 UTC = AIRSTRIKES only on Beirut, not ground. Israel already fighting Iran on two fronts — Lebanon ground incursion in 25 days is strategically reckless. SM WR=17.6% extreme lottery. True P(NO) ~78-85% vs market 29.5%. Edge ~40-45%.
Mar 6 04:46BUYIran names Khamenei successor by Mar 6? NO$2.00
Assembly of Experts cannot safely convene under active bombardment. Khamenei funeral postponed due to bombing. YES=16% is 2-3× reality. Thin 8-10% edge, near-dated (~13h), minimum size. Resolves ~17:00 UTC Mar 6.
Mar 6 04:46BUYTrump says "Ayatollah/Khamenei" this week? YES$2.00
Trump tweeting about Iran non-stop for 6+ days during active war. Near-certainty he said either word. Fills non-geo debt. Thin book — price moved from 0.56→0.63 on entry. Edge still ~35%+ at true P ~98%+. Resolves Mar 8.
Mar 6 00:52BUYSaudi Arabia strike Iran by Mar 31? NO$3.00
Saudi-Iran normalized 2023 (China-brokered). Vision 2030 requires regional stability. Oil fields exposed to Iranian retaliation. Proxy-only conflict history. SM 225w/WR=14.2% lottery; avg_buy=$0.597 (buyers -51% underwater). Edge ~25%. Min size — top up post-oracle.
Mar 6 00:52REJECTEDSinners Best Picture NO
Mar 6 00:51BUYQatar strike Iran by Mar 31? NO$5.00
Qatar hosts Al-Udeid (largest US base, ~8k troops). Zero offensive capability vs Iran. Diplomatic ties maintained. Never launched offensive ops in history. Market at 30.5% YES = lottery fever. SM 151w/WR=16.8% lottery; avg_buy=$0.561 (buyers -45% underwater). Edge ~29%.
Mar 6 00:28CLOSEPanthers win on Mar 6?-$0.57
Mar 5 22:07CLOSECS2: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3)+$2.53
Mar 5 20:06CLOSEClaude #1 App Store Mar 6?-$1.46
Mar 5 19:19BUYClaude #1 US App Store Mar 6? (outcome field shows "No" — direction ambiguous)$3.00
@research Cy201 confirmed Claude #1 at 18:32 UTC via App Store RSS. Web fetch at 19:19 UTC CONFIRMED: #1 Claude, #2 ChatGPT, #3 Gemini. Market mid 0.173 = severely mispriced if Claude maintaining #1 tonight. Token: 11564105748458108941880293398489818351539347411535637611912933188760209549864. orderId: 0x90863d902a960f7b1a7fa52a09923870193b7640e948bf768e368f4d849a47fb. NOTE: Predexon fill shows outcome="No" — labeling ambiguity. Need to verify at resolution whether YES or NO token. Resolves Mar 6 17:00 UTC. $3 max loss.
Mar 5 18:06BUYAnother country strike Iran by Mar 7? NO (ADD)$12.00HIGH
BBC CLEAN since 11:35 UTC (6.5h). @research Cy200 confirmed zero third-country keywords in any BBC feed. Oracle ~3h. Market pricing 72% NO vs est 90-95% NO. 19pt drop from 0.860 was thin-book noise (577sh at 0.690 = <$400 selling). Add at 0.730 captures 26% edge in ~3h window. Total AnotMar7 position: 31.675sh blended $0.759. Token: 25064626188502102104741406490122366915347491209651567794437835345531465570311. orderId: 0x8afa6a14205d3d3f128b788c4278cfd4072cb455709555858837cec7406e7620
Mar 5 17:34BUYOKC Thunder win NBA Finals? NO$8.00
SM 344w/WR=13.9% EXTREME LOTTERY. OKC YES=36% to win Finals is high for any single team (historical base rate ~25-35%). Same structural pattern as Arsenal/Bayern UCL, England/Spain WC. $239k depth, 1¢ spread. Non-geo pairing for USForcesMar14 geo rec (Cy196). Token: 44914465637297319816681463234953032477919413063019359633128421605039733545953. orderId: 0x3b67007b53d8a538bcb1cbbbe77aa524c7f21a57881139079bb7ff21297da3b4. Resolves Jun 2026.