AI Research Decisions

Every recommendation the research agent sends to the trader — with probability estimates, edge calculations, and reasoning.

Total Decisions
30
Executed
0
Agent Status
ACTIVE
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
1h ago · Side: NO
LOW
GOP controls House. Impeachment requires majority House vote — cannot pass without unprecedented Republican crossover. SM WR=20.4% borderline, YES buyers at avg 13.8¢ now at 10.5¢ = UNDERWATER. 10.5% YES = pure tail-risk premium.
Resolves: December 31, 2026
28.3% YES = FAIRLY PRICED. No clear edge. Skip.
4h ago · Side: NO
HIGH
SM WR=14.2% EXTREME, wc=592, 68% buyers, avg=0.456 UNDERWATER. US now focused on Iran war = less Ukraine diplomatic pressure. War entering year 5. No path to settlement visible. Market overpricing ceasefire probability.
Resolves: December 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
4h ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM
Term structure gap fill. Air war alone doesn't topple regimes in 54 days (Serbia 1999 = 78 days NATO bombing, no collapse; Iraq 2003 required ground). SM WR=6.8% EXTREME, 88% buying YES, underground. BBC CLEAN×34.
Resolves: April 30, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
4h ago · Side: NO
HIGH.
BTC=$68,286, needs +9.8% to $75k. SM WR=12.6% EXTREME, 75% nb, avg=57.6¢ underwater. Touch-prob ≈ 52% at 3%/day vol. War = risk-off = lower vol. Non-geo debt fill, $2 min.
Resolves: March 31, 2026
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31
6h ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM-HIGH
SM WR=9.2% EXTREME, wc=76, 87% nb, avg=0.504 trapped underwater. Trump seeking regime change (per BBC article) = ops continue past March 31. BBC article "Trump picks Iran's leader" REINFORCES NO.
Resolves: March 31, 2026
Will OKC Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
6h ago · Side: NO
LOW-MEDIUM
SM WR=13.9% EXTREME, wc=351, 74% nb, avg=0.379 underwater. Non-geo pair for TrumpEndOps. OKC excellent team but Finals probability ~25-30%, market at 36.9%.
Resolves: Market CORRECTLY priced. Tweet count markets tracked in real-time.
AnotMar31 NO | Token: 43844...362035
10h ago · Side: NO | Price: 0.415 (AMM panic) | My estimate: 60-70% NO | Edge: 18-28%
MEDIUM-HIGH | Use LIMIT ORDER at 0.415-0.430
Resolves: "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Announcement = sufficient."
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
14h ago · Side: NO
LOW
Market: 93%AI Estimate: 6000%Edge: ~0.5-3%
0%50%100%
SM 388w/WR=16.2% LOTTERY, 72% buyers, avg=7.8¢ vs current 7.3¢ = SM underwater. Africa has never won WC. Surge=4.1x from fans/AFCON enthusiasm. 7.3% YES vs ~4-6% fundamental estimate.
Resolves: "Will Israel launch a MAJOR ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?"
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5+ worldwide by March 8?
14h ago · Side: NO (ADD to existing position)
HIGH (mathematical, not subjective)
Market: 25%AI Estimate: 4800%Edge: ~23%
0%50%100%
Market dramatically misprices by assuming 75% quiet period. Historical rate = 0.411/day. 38h remaining window = 0.656 expected additional events. P(0 more) = 52%, not 75%. Solomon Islands M6.7 confirms the market is active but markets can't correctly calculate Poisson touch probability.
Resolves: March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
"Will there be EXACTLY 1 earthquake M6.5+ worldwide by March 8?"
16h ago · Side: NO
LOW-MEDIUM
Market: 82%AI Estimate: 8600%Edge: ~4-8%
0%50%100%
SM 772w/WR=16.0% EXTREME LOTTERY, avg=0.270 deeply underwater. Arsenal at 81.8% probability = title essentially Arsenal's. Lottery fans pushed Man City YES to 27¢ peak, now correcting to 18¢. Fills non-geo debt from KhSuccMar31 NO (Cy231).
Resolves: End of 2025-26 EPL season (~May 2026)
Will Manchester City win the 2025-26 English Premier League?
18h ago · Side: NO
VERY HIGH
SM 254w/WR=15.6% EXTREME LOTTERY, 81% buyers underwater (avg 0.838 > current 0.731). Assembly can't convene during active bombardment. KhSuccMar6 resolves NO in 15h. BBC CLEAN×24.
Resolves: 1000+ ground troops. Air strikes do NOT count.
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
19h ago · Side: YES
LOW (verbal only, thin $362 book)
Market: 56%AI Estimate: 1500%Edge: ~13-18%
0%50%100%
Trump verbally discusses Iran war daily in press conferences. Khamenei dead. But verbal-only criterion adds uncertainty vs written. Still 70-75% likely.
Resolves: March 8, 2026 23:59 ET
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
21h ago · Side: NO
LOW-MEDIUM
Market: 78%AI Estimate: 7500%Edge: ~3-7%
0%50%100%
SM WR=16.9% EXTREME LOTTERY (154w, 77% buyers, avg 22.97¢ vs 22.5¢ current). Lottery buyers propping up Japan YES with historical quality narrative. True probability 18-25%. Fills 1 outstanding non-geo debt. Pairs with WBC DR NO (WBC aggregate overpricing thesis).
Resolves: March 17, 2026
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM
SM 57w/WR=16.4% EXTREME LOTTERY. YES=17.7%>>12% threshold. Michigan historically weak in deep tournament runs. Same pattern as WC/UCL/NBA.
Resolves: April 2026 NCAA Tournament
Another country strikes Iran by March 7
1d ago · Side: NO ADD
HIGH (BBC CLEAN + 3h oracle = extraordinary time-value edge)
Resolves: ~21:00 UTC tonight
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets (Panthers win)
1d ago · Side: YES
LOW (debt fill only; 50/50 market; size $0-5 max)
Volume spike 7.0x only signal. 50/50 essentially coin-flip.
Resolves: Tonight ~00:30 UTC
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?
1d ago · Side: YES
LOW (no independent edge; purely filling debt #1; size $0-5 max)
Resolves: 2026-03-05 20:00 UTC (tonight)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?
1d ago · Side: YES
LOW (debt fill only; professional CLOB efficient; no identified edge)
Volume spike 6.8x only signal. $895k professional depth = efficient price. Size $0-5 max.
Resolves: Tonight 20:00 UTC
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM-HIGH (SM 344w/WR=13.9% EXTREME LOTTERY, $239k depth, YES>12% threshold)
Same extreme lottery pattern as England/Spain WC, Arsenal/Bayern UCL. OKC at 36% YES is history's most bullish NBA team pricing. Base rate favors NO.
Resolves: June 2026 NBA Finals
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM-HIGH
SM 344w/WR=13.9% EXTREME LOTTERY. Same pattern as WC/UCL. YES=36% overpriced for any single NBA team. $239k depth. Tournament YES threshold: 36%>>12%.
Resolves: June 2026 NBA Finals
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM-HIGH
Resolves: March 31, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM-HIGH
Resolves: March 14, 2026
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
1d ago · Side: NO
HIGH (BBC confirms air-only, SM extreme lottery 229w WR=14.1%, $92k depth, 38h window)
Resolves: March 7, 2026
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM (caveat: thin book, wide spread, 56-wallet SM sample — size very small)
No formal US war declaration since WWII (1941). Congress acts as brake even if Senate rejected war powers limit. SM WR=15.3% lottery, 56w. Short resolution = excellent time value.
Resolves: March 31, 2026
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM (downgraded from HIGH due to thin book + small SM sample)
SM WR=5.5% (1229 wallets volume filter) = most extreme lottery signal ever recorded. $627k NO depth. Even reigning Euro champs are overpriced at 15% YES. Pairs with China Invades Taiwan geo rec.
Resolves: July 19, 2026 (WC Final)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM-HIGH
SM 189w/WR=13.0% EXTREME LOTTERY. $566k NO depth. 60-year England WC drought. Base rate 5-8%. Market at 13.2% = significantly overpriced. Pairs with China-Taiwan Clash geo rec.
Resolves: July 19, 2026 (WC Final)
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
2d ago · Side: NO
HIGH (research-grade — book gapped, cannot execute currently)
Classic lottery ticket pattern: 851 smart wallets 76.73% long YES at 13.1% win rate. Regime has IRGC/Majlis/Guardian Council intact. No ground invasion. 26-day timeline.
Resolves: March 31 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2d ago · Side: NO
HIGH (research-grade — book gapped)
536 smart wallets 78.36% long YES at 12.6% win rate. Bigger edge than Mar31. IRGC institutional power intact. Even optimistic estimate suggests 15-20% max.
Resolves: June 30 2026
Earthquake count 0-events March 1-8 (Eq0 add-on) YES
3d ago · Side: YES
MEDIUM-HIGH
Market: 53%AI Estimate: 83%Edge: +30.2%
0%50%100%
1.924 days clean, P(0)=83.17%. Price improved vs 0.554 blended entry. Edge grew from +27% to +30.2%. Increased conviction add-on justified.
Resolves: "halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31"
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? (NO)
3d ago · Side: NO
MEDIUM
Market: 26%AI Estimate: 55%Edge: +29.5%
0%50%100%
Same as May31. Market pricing 74.5% YES at 119 days. My estimate 40-50% YES. $28k vol.
Resolves: June 30, 2026